Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
