Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
